Let's start with the best-case scenario option.
Alabama football runs through competition in the regular season, winning every game and entering the postseason 12-0. Then the Crimson Tide wins the SEC Championship Game and earns a first-round bye in the expanded College Football Playoff. Alabama wins in the quarterfinals, then the semifinals and then in the national championship to give UA the first title under new coach Kalen DeBoer.
Wouldn't that be something?
It's not completely out of the realm of possibility, but pulling off a perfect season in the first season of this new era of college football would be nothing short of remarkable. For any team, Alabama included.
When you glance at a schedule like the Crimson Tide's, you know an impeccable season will be difficult. For example: The first SEC game of the schedule, and for DeBoer, Alabama plays host to Georgia, who is likely to be No. 1 or No. 2 in preseason polls.
Throw in matchups with Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma on the road to go with a potentially difficult game against Missouri at home, and expecting a perfect season might be too high of an ask and not terribly realistic.
So, what is a realistic expectation for Alabama in 2024?
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Before we get into exact record discussions, the ultimate barometer of achievement will likely be making the College Football Playoff. With it expanding to 12 teams, it is an attainable goal and frankly realistic even with a difficult schedule. DeBoer has shown an ability to win every place he has been, so there's no reason to believe he can't do the same in Tuscaloosa until he shows otherwise. This roster looks much different than the one that won the SEC and reached the Rose Bowl in 2023, but plenty of blue-chip talent exists between the returning players and the additions. Simply put, with DeBoer's track record and what Alabama has on its roster, the idea of a CFP appearance in DeBoer's first season at Alabama is certainly within the realm of possibility. In fact, less than that would be fair to be considered a disappointment.
Is expecting the Crimson Tide to get a first-round bye unrealistic? Maybe. Maybe not. That requires not only winning your conference (an SEC that has now added Texas and Oklahoma), but also being one of the four highest-ranked conference champions.
It's more probable Alabama lands among the group playing in the first round of the College Football Playoff. If 11-1 doesn't secure a first-round bye, it should all but guarantee a spot in the playoff. Finishing 10-2 should solidify a spot in the playoff as well, but where (whether as a No. 5 seed or a No. 12 seed) probably depends on the year. A record of 9-3 could get a team into the playoff, but it's far from a guarantee. Had there been a 12-team playoff a season ago, the worst record that would have made it was 10-2. And Oklahoma wouldn't have made it, despite finishing 10-2 because it was ranked lower than Missouri, Penn State and Ole Miss.
A 10-2 record is attainable and would be a strong first season for DeBoer in Tuscaloosa. That allows for a loss to a potential top-ranked Georgia at home and say one tough road game against maybe LSU, Tennessee or Oklahoma. A 10-2 prediction features both a mix of optimism and a dose of reality, considering the tough schedule.
9-3 wouldn't be a shock, though. Not when you consider some of the matchups, particularly on the road. Alabama is certainly going to be tested away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Then again, say some of those end up close games that go Alabama's way, and the Crimson Tide could very well end up 11-1.
Don't hold your breath on a perfect season, though. It's probably not realistic considering the challenges DeBoer and company face. There's good news, though — you can lose a game or two, or maybe even three, and still have a shot at a national championship.
Nick Kelly is the Alabama beat writer for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network, and he covers Alabama football and men's basketball. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him@_NickKellyon X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.
