Straight-up NFL picks, Week 4: Too much faith in the Jaguars, Colts and Saints (2024)

The San Francisco 49ers host the largest spread of the week at -14 against Arizona, but all that team does is cover so we’ll avoid Joshua Dobbs’ squad here. Nothing is easy when you face the Cardinals, but when you’ve got the Jets on the schedule you can count on one thing: Zach Wilson will be roughly as threatening as an alpaca.

This line infers the Chiefs are five points better than the New England Patriots, who won in northern New Jersey last week 15-10. While the Jets’ defense can cause trouble for a Kansas City passing game with few reliable options beyond Travis Kelce, their offense lacks the firepower to capitalize. Wilson could link up with Garrett Wilson for a few big plays, but the Chiefs’ defense has been playing efficiently and has the horses to limit that damage.

Week 4 was supposed to be a rare showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Instead it’s Mahomes and Wilson, a player with a passer rating roughly 45 points below the reigning MVP. That stinks, and so will this game.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-0 (1.000)

What’s wrong with the Jaguars? Trevor Lawrence has taken a decided step backward — though some timely drops have been a problem — as Jacksonville limped out to a 1-2 record behind the league’s 29th-ranked offense. This should not be possible with Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne in the lineup.

Now they get the Falcons at “home,” which is actually a London soccer pitch filled with fans wearing jerseys of teams that aren’t in attendance. Jacksonville is 1-3 in its last four International Series games. They’re up against an Atlanta team that’s been solid in its 2-1 start.

But the Jaguars have the tools to frustrate the Falcons. Their run defense ranks third in the NFL when it comes to expected points allowed (EPA) per rush play. That’s useful against an opponent who would like nothing more than to grind you into powder on the ground and whose quarterback, notably, played like microwave nachos in Week 3 (38 passes, 201 yards, seven sacks taken and a fumble lost).

So Jacksonville gets the nod here and unanimously from our panel. Here’s hoping Week 4 marks the return of the Jaguars’ offense.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-0 (1.000)

Last week’s upset pick relied on the Minnesota Vikings not to forget how to play football inside the red zone. This was a mistake.

This week’s pick feels like less of a mistake, but there has to be more here than meets the eye. The Giants have been a raging torrent of garbage water this season. The Seahawks have shaken off a disappointing Week 1 loss to get their offense back on track en route to wins over the Detroit Lions (good) and Carolina Panthers (whatever). And yet, Seattle is a one-point underdog on the road in prime time.

There’s got to be something our panel doesn’t know about, because we’re all on Geno Smith in this one. The Seahawks’ biggest defensive deficiency has been a disappointing pass rush, but that’s nullified by the fact New York can’t block anyone, even if Andrew Thomas is back in the lineup. Saquon Barkley remains day-to-day with an ankle injury and won’t be full strength by Monday if he does play.

A substandard Giants defense has to face a Seahawks offense that’s hitting its stride. Seems like an easy call. It’s gonna sting when New York wins 31-29.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-1 (.667)