Euro 2024 predictions for top scorer, tournament winner and more (2024)

This article is the first in our ‘Tips and Tricks’ series, where we use data and know-how to identify trends and insight for Euro 2024. You can find all future articles in the series here.

As the 17th European Championship approaches, it’s hard to remember one more eagerly anticipated.

The delayed Euro 2020 had its moments, but half-empty stadiums across a continent never felt right and neither did watching a World Cup 18 months later against a backdrop of dark nights and Christmas decorations.

In contrast, Euro 2024 feels like a proper tournament — but who will win it?

Tournament favourites

England top the list, but on a recent episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, host Michael Bailey and guests equated that to a 20 to 30 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. Spain were the last team that started as favourites to win a Euros or World Cup, back in 2012.

Yet Gareth Southgate’s men are worthy of the label in Germany. They reached the final last time and qualified unbeaten for this summer’s tournament. With Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and Declan Rice fighting fit (we’ll forget that friendly defeat by Iceland), they’ll be tough to beat.

Like England, second-favourites France stumbled in their final warm-up, drawing 0-0 with Canada — but again, like England, they are fancied to get it right when it matters.

Germany and Portugal are also tipped to be there or thereabouts and a case can be made for both. Yes, the hosts are lightly raced having played no competitive fixtures since Qatar 2022, but home advantage, Toni Kroos’ return and talented youngsters Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala mean Germany can expect a run to the semi-finals. Their squad is full of experience (below), too, which could give them the edge.

There, they could meet Portugal, who are my pick for the prize. The Portuguese have not-too-distant memories of lifting the trophy and, as can be seen in the graphic below, they have been imperious in the lead-up to this tournament. Their qualification opponents were relatively weak, but Portugal were the only team across UEFA’s 53 nations with a 100 per cent record. They also scored the most goals, let in the fewest and racked up the biggest numbers for shots and possession.

In Germany, Portugal have been drawn into a relatively straightforward group — Czech Republic, Turkey and Georgia — and will have Cristiano Ronaldo… more on him below.

Top scorers

Kylian Mbappe is the market leader after 44 goals in 48 games for Paris Saint-Germain in the 2023-24 season and eight at the last World Cup, including a hat-trick in the final. His France tally stands at 47 goals in 79 games.

And few would argue with Kane (63 in 91 for England) being touted as his closest challenger following a debut season for Bayern Munich that yielded 44 in 45.

Ronaldo is also hovering around the goal-a-game mark — albeit at a different level — for Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr. In a Portugal shirt, he grabbed 10 of the 36 they scored in qualifying. Boss Roberto Martinez will give the 39-year-old a rest when he can, but his squad is good enough to go all the way and there is also a game against Georgia to boost the goals column.

That mismatch pits the qualification top scorers against the leakiest defence of the 24 teams who reached Germany. The Georgians conceded 18 goals in eight group games.

Elsewhere, Ronaldo has an able understudy in Goncalo Ramos. He deserves a mention as a lively outsider after eight goals in 13 outings for his country while Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku was the only player to score more than Ronaldo in qualifying (14 in eight) and arrives in Germany as the player with the best goals-per-cap rate (0.74, minimum 10 caps, below). He should be on any shortlist along with Germany’s Niclas Fullkrug.

Stats correct as of June 10

England’s winning start?

In his three tournaments as England manager, Southgate has twice steered his side to the top of their group, with Belgium the only team to finish above them, beating them in the early stages of the 2018 World Cup and again in the third-place play-off.

Southgate’s side are heavy favourites to be looking down on Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia when Group C is over and they can get off to a winning start on Sunday night in Gelsenkirchen.

Serbia, sitting 29 places below England in 33rd in the FIFA rankings, are up first. They took one point from three games at the last World Cup and although they improved in the Euro 2024 qualification campaign, they failed their two toughest tests, losing home and away to Group G winners Hungary.

They did manage at least a goal in every game in qualifying and put three past Sweden while winning their most recent warm-up, so an England win with both teams scoring looks likely, while 3-1 is a decent shout for correct-score backers.

Opening fixtures

Scotland are the biggest-priced team in the opening round of group games for Friday night’s curtain-raiser against Germany.

There is, however, another outsider potentially worth backing. Albania play on Saturday against an Italy side who failed to reach the last World Cup. In qualifying for Euro 2024, they were a level below England and let in more than a goal a game. They are also struggling to score, only scraping a 1-0 win against Bosnia and Herzegovina after a goalless draw with Turkey.

Albania have strong appeal — consider them to win without conceding or 1-0 as a correct score.

Elsewhere, France (against Austria), Portugal (against Czech Republic), Belgium (against Slovakia) and the Netherlands (against Poland) are all very decent shouts.

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